DENVER (KDVR) — U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet has advanced in his lead over Republican challenger Joe O’Dea ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm elections. The race has narrowed from a month ago as undecided voters are choosing which candidate they prefer in a state where independent voters are the largest voting bloc.
The results of the FOX31 / Channel 2 / Emerson College Polling / The Hill Colorado poll conducted Oct. 26-29 show Colorado’s incumbent senator with a 7-point lead over O’Dea.
Among voters of all political affiliations, 49.3% of respondents said they would vote for Bennet, while 41.9% said they would vote for O’Dea.
This is a slight narrowing of the race. A month ago, Bennet had a 10-point lead over his challenger.
Both candidates have gained voters since a previous poll in late September, whittling away the share of voters who said they were unsure. The share of voters who were unsure about their favored senator dropped from 14.4% in September to 5.4% in October.
Bennet gained a smaller share of voters. In September, 45.5% of respondents said they would vote for him. Now, 49.3% said they will, a gain of 3.8 points.
O’Dea gained more of the unsure voters. About 36% of all voters said they would vote for him in September. Now, 41.9% said they will vote for him, a 6-point gain.
In the last month, both Democrats and Republicans have become increasingly partisan in their choice of a senator. Independent voters remain more Democratic, but their approval of Republican candidates has strengthened significantly in the last month.
About 75% of Democrats polled last month said they would vote for Bennet. In October’s poll, 89.5% said they would vote for him.
Republicans became similarly hardened to their own party’s candidate. The share of Republicans who said they would vote for O’Dea grew from 73.7% in September to 83.7% now.
Among independent voters, the share who favor Bennet grew from 46.6% in September to 48.1% in October. O’Dea’s approval among independent voters grew more, from 32.3% to 40.4%.
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Methodology: The FOX31 / Channel 2 / Emerson College Polling / The Hill Colorado poll was conducted October 26-29, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.02 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.
