DENVER (KDVR) — Recounts usually don’t overturn an election, according to researchers.
In District 3, incumbent Republican Lauren Boebert is trailing in votes behind Adam Frisch.
No candidates have yet said they will want a recount, but Colorado statute allows for recounts in any race and requires them in the closest races, which means races where the candidates are within 0.5% of each other. It is one of 27 states that require automatic recounts and 43 that allow recounts to be requested.
A recount is unlikely to change the outcome, according to a FairVote analysis of statewide and national races from all 50 states between 2010 and 2019.
Recounts are themselves exceptionally rare, and outcomes are only reversed when the candidates were within a few hundred votes of each other in the original count.
The study analyzed each of the 5,778 statewide races that occurred between 2010 and 2019. This does not account for U.S. House of Representative races such as Colorado’s districts 3.
Only 31 have been recounted, that’s about 0.54% or one in 185. Of the recounted elections, three resulted in the election being overturned, or 9.7%.
On average, recounts swing the candidates’ votes by small amounts – 0.11% for the loser and 0.106% for the winner.
Each of the elections that resulted in a reversal of outcome had razor-thin margins in the original voting count.
Washington State’s governor’s election in 2004 changed in the recount by, 390 votes, or 0.014% of the total votes cast. A Vermont state auditor race in 2006 changed in the recount by 239 votes, or 0.107% of the total votes. The 2008 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota changed in the recount by 440 votes, or 0.018% of the total vote.