DENVER (KDVR) — Racial demographic gaps and rural counties could play a role in Colorado’s stubbornly climbing COVID rate.
Colorado’s case COVID rate is one of the few in the U.S. rising instead of falling and is now double the national rate.
Since Sept. 1, the national rate has fallen from 50 new cases per day per 100,000 people to 22. In the same timeframe, Colorado’s rate has risen from 30 new cases a day per 100,000 people to 50.
The case rate is now almost exactly what it was at this time last year.
Few Colorado officials have been able to pin down why Colorado’s rates would stand out among the rest of the country, especially since its vaccination rate is among the country’s highest.
Timing could be a factor.
Colorado’s case rate peaks have historically been off the U.S. average. During the fall wave of 2020, Colorado’s case rate peaked roughly two months before the country’s.
Demographics could also play a factor.
Colorado’s Hispanic population – which is roughly 1.14 million people – is both larger than the national share and less vaccinated.
Nationwide, Hispanic people are represented well in vaccination status. The U.S. population is 17.2% Hispanic, and Hispanic persons represent 16.8% of all fully immunized people, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.
Colorado’s rate is much lower. In the Centennial State, 11.73% of fully vaccinated persons are Hispanic, while that same group makes up 20.22% of the state’s population.
Colorado’s rural counties add to the issue, too.
With few exceptions, the Colorado counties with the highest vaccination rates have the lowest incidence rates and vice versa.
Most of the Denver metro counties have relatively high vaccination rates and low incidence rates. Eastern Plans and Western Slope counties, on the other hand, have low vaccinations and higher COVID rates.
These are typically more rural counties.
The 15 counties with the highest incidence rates also have a 59% vaccination rate, on average. The 15 counties with the lowest COVID rates, though, have an average 70% vaccination rate.
Those 15 least-infected counties are, on average, twice as populated as the 15 most-infected.
| County name | 2020 population | 1+ vaccination rate | Two-week cumulative incidence rate |
| Adams County | 519,572 | 0.78 | 621.6 |
| Alamosa County | 16,376 | 0.66 | 1279.9 |
| Arapahoe County | 655,070 | 0.79 | 544.5 |
| Archuleta County | 13,359 | 0.70 | 927.6 |
| Baca County | 33,506 | 0.47 | 1841.2 |
| Bent County | 5,650 | 0.49 | 1037.9 |
| Boulder County | 330,758 | 0.84 | 488.1 |
| Chaffee County | 19,476 | 0.84 | 471.3 |
| Cheyenne County | 1,748 | 0.80 | 876.3 |
| Broomfield County | 74,112 | 0.40 | 394 |
| Clear Creek County | 9,397 | 0.64 | 806.6 |
| Conejos County | 7,461 | 0.76 | 459 |
| Costilla County | 3,499 | 0.52 | 684.3 |
| Crowley County | 5,922 | 0.55 | 1,018.5 |
| Custer County | 4,704 | 0.55 | 866.5 |
| Delta County | 31,196 | 0.87 | 547.6 |
| Denver County | 715,522 | 0.78 | 534.8 |
| Dolores County | 2,326 | 0.8 | 213.6 |
| Douglas County | 357,978 | 0.78 | 548.3 |
| Eagle County | 55,731 | 0.93 | 645.4 |
| El Paso County | 730,395 | 0.71 | 771 |
| Elbert County | 26,062 | 0.52 | 435.3 |
| Fremont County | 48,939 | 0.54 | 1,298.9 |
| Garfield County | 61,685 | 0.72 | 502.3 |
| Gilpin County | 5,808 | 0.73 | 845 |
| Grand County | 15,717 | 0.73 | 280.1 |
| Gunnison County | 16,918 | 0.83 | 301 |
| Hinsdale County | 788 | 0.71 | 377.4 |
| Huerfano County | 6,820 | 0.62 | 1,160.9 |
| Jackson County | 1,379 | 0.5 | 145.6 |
| Jefferson County | 582,910 | 0.83 | 611.9 |
| Kiowa County | 1,446 | 0.42 | 1,916.5 |
| Kit Carson County | 7,087 | 0.44 | 621.7 |
| La Plata County | 55,638 | 0.8 | 799.7 |
| Lake County | 7,436 | 0.78 | 458.4 |
| Larimer County | 359,066 | 0.75 | 729.5 |
| Las Animas County | 14,555 | 0.70 | 961.6 |
| Lincoln County | 5,675 | 0.51 | 282.6 |
| Logan County | 21,528 | 0.51 | 752.1 |
| Mesa County | 155,703 | 0.57 | 1,034.6 |
| Mineral County | 865 | 0.84 | 930.2 |
| Moffat County | 13,292 | 0.51 | 571.9 |
| Montezuma County | 25,849 | 0.73 | 1,334.3 |
| Montrose County | 42,679 | 0.55 | 1,340.7 |
| Morgan County | 29,111 | 0.57 | 714.8 |
| Otero County | 18,690 | 0.55 | 974.6 |
| Ouray County | 4,874 | 0.76 | 655.6 |
| Park County | 17,390 | 0.59 | 645.4 |
| Phillips County | 4,530 | 0.58 | 331.3 |
| Pitkin County | 17,358 | 0.999 | 293.7 |
| Prowers County | 11,999 | 0.51 | 1,040.4 |
| Pueblo County | 168,162 | 0.66 | 1,158.4 |
| Rio Blanco County | 6,529 | 0.43 | 1,484.5 |
| Rio Grande County | 11,539 | 0.67 | 813.5 |
| Routt County | 24,829 | 0.88 | 962.1 |
| Saguache County | 6,368 | 0.55 | 654.8 |
| San Juan County | 705 | 0.999 | 1,400.6 |
| San Miguel County | 8,072 | 0.97 | 483.7 |
| Sedgwick County | 2,404 | 0.53 | 456.6 |
| Summit County | 31,055 | 0.93 | 615.8 |
| Teller County | 24,710 | 0.62 | 682.1 |
| Washington County | 4,817 | 0.37 | 849 |
| Weld County | 328,981 | 0.66 | 805 |
| Yuma County | 9,988 | 0.53 | 640.1 |